By Lina Hope 
By Jordan Lippert and Sofia Hernandez Ramones
Eighteen months into her historic term as the President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum continues to command a significant degree of support among the Mexican electorate. However, a comprehensive spring 2026 survey conducted by the Pew Research Center reveals a notable cooling in the public’s enthusiasm. As the administration navigates a complex landscape of economic stagnation and persistent security challenges, the high approval ratings that defined the early stages of her presidency have begun to regress toward a more measured baseline.
The data, collected between February 20 and April 10, 2026, highlights a broader trend: while Sheinbaum and her left-leaning Morena party remain the most prominent political force in the country, their favorable standing has seen a marked decline compared to the previous year. This shift is mirrored by growing public anxiety regarding the national economy and a deepening dissatisfaction with the current state of Mexican democracy.
A Changing Political Landscape: The Data
The figures represent a significant transition in the political climate. In 2025, President Sheinbaum enjoyed an 83% favorability rating; that number has now settled at 64%. Perhaps more telling is the intensity of that support: the percentage of citizens reporting a "very favorable" view of the president has plummeted from 46% to 24%.
The Morena party has experienced a similar trajectory. Once riding a wave of overwhelming popularity, the party’s favorability has dropped from 78% in 2025 to 61% in 2026. Despite this decline, Morena maintains a clear lead over its political rivals. It remains the only political party in the survey that enjoys a net-positive perception among the public, with other traditional parties like the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) trailing far behind.
Chronology of Challenges
The period leading up to the survey was defined by several high-profile events that likely influenced public perception. The survey window closed just before two seismic events that have reshaped the national security conversation.
In April 2026, following the conclusion of the survey’s fieldwork, the landscape was rocked by the death of notorious cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, commonly known as "El Mencho." His demise at the hands of Mexican special forces triggered a violent, widespread retaliation from his cartel, further intensifying public concerns regarding the government’s ability to maintain order.
Shortly thereafter, the administration faced a political crisis of a different nature. U.S. authorities issued indictments against the Governor of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha Moya, alleging complicity in aiding the Sinaloa drug cartel. The resulting scandal led to the Governor’s resignation, placing additional pressure on the federal government to demonstrate a commitment to rooting out systemic corruption. These events, while occurring after the survey’s formal conclusion, serve as a backdrop to the sentiment captured during the spring months.
Detailed Performance Analysis: Where Sheinbaum Stands
The public’s appraisal of President Sheinbaum is nuanced, varying significantly by policy sector. Her administration receives its strongest marks on issues related to social infrastructure and economic management, while struggling to gain traction on security and anti-corruption efforts.
- Education: 65% of respondents approve of her handling of the education system, marking a high point for her domestic agenda.
- The Economy: Despite broader national concerns, 61% of Mexicans approve of her economic management.
- U.S.-Mexico Relations: A majority (55%) express approval for her diplomatic approach toward the United States, a critical pillar of her foreign policy.
- Security and Corruption: Here, the administration faces its most significant headwinds. Only 45% of respondents approve of her efforts to fight organized crime and drug trafficking, with an equal percentage approving of her anti-corruption initiatives. In both cases, the disapproval ratings—at 53%—outweigh the approval, signaling that public safety remains the primary point of contention for voters.
These ratings are heavily polarized along party lines. Supporters of Morena and its coalition partners—the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) and the Labor Party (PT)—are significantly more likely to offer positive feedback. For example, when asked about corruption, 56% of coalition supporters approve of the President’s actions, compared to only 37% among those who do not align with the governing coalition.
Economic and Democratic Indicators
The survey also probed the public’s view of the nation’s health, revealing a significant drop in optimism. Only 49% of Mexicans now characterize the country’s economic situation as "good," a 12-point drop from the 61% recorded in 2025. This downward trend coincides with reports that the Mexican economy contracted during the first quarter of 2026, a reality that has begun to filter into the public consciousness.
Perhaps most concerning for the long-term stability of the administration is the decline in democratic satisfaction. Only 33% of respondents reported being satisfied with the way democracy is currently functioning in Mexico, down sharply from 51% in 2025.
Interestingly, this decline in both economic and democratic satisfaction is most pronounced among individuals who identify as being on the political left. This suggests that the administration’s core base is becoming increasingly critical, potentially due to the disparity between campaign promises and the tangible outcomes observed during the first year and a half of the term.
Official Responses and Administrative Context
The administration has largely maintained that these fluctuations are expected in the mid-term of a major political transformation. Government spokespeople have consistently pointed to the global economic headwinds and the entrenched nature of the security crises inherited from previous administrations as primary factors.
However, the resignation of Governor Rocha Moya and the intense scrutiny from the United States have forced the administration to adopt a more defensive posture regarding the infiltration of criminal elements into local government. In recent press conferences, President Sheinbaum has emphasized a "zero tolerance" policy for corruption, even as she faces mounting pressure from both the opposition and her own base to deliver concrete results on violence reduction.
Broader Implications
The findings from the 2026 Pew Research survey suggest that Mexico is at a critical juncture. The honeymoon period of the Sheinbaum administration has effectively concluded, giving way to the realities of governing a large, complex nation facing internal and external pressures.
- The Security Dilemma: The persistent gap between public expectations for safety and the administration’s actual performance remains the greatest threat to its popularity. If the violence following the death of high-profile cartel leaders continues to escalate, the administration’s 45% approval on security is unlikely to recover.
- The "Left-Wing" Disillusionment: The shift in sentiment among those on the left is a warning sign. While Morena remains the dominant party, the loss of support from its ideological base indicates that the "change" promised by the movement is being scrutinized more critically than ever before.
- Economic Resilience: With the economy having shrunk in the first quarter of 2026, the government’s ability to manage inflationary pressures and stimulate growth will be the primary determinant of whether the 61% approval rating for economic management remains stable or begins to mirror the decline seen in other metrics.
Ultimately, while President Sheinbaum maintains a firm grip on the national political narrative, the 2026 data shows that the Mexican public is becoming increasingly discerning. The next phase of her presidency will likely be defined by her ability to move beyond rhetoric and deliver measurable improvements in security and economic well-being, both of which are currently trending in a direction that warrants close observation by analysts and policymakers alike.
Methodology Note
The Pew Research Center surveyed 1,017 Mexican adults between February 20 and April 10, 2026. The survey was designed to provide a representative view of the adult population in Mexico. It formed part of a larger, global study covering public opinion in 37 nations. For full details on the methodology, survey questions, and topline findings, please refer to the official documentation provided by the Pew Research Center.
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Jia Lissa 
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