Pew Research Center Releases Comprehensive Methodological Framework for Longitudinal Study on Latter-day Saints in the United States

WASHINGTON — In an effort to provide deeper clarity on religious shifting within the United States, the Pew Research Center has released a detailed methodological and demographic breakdown accompanying its broader reporting on the state of Christianity. The data stems directly from the ambitious 2023–24 Religious Landscape Study (RLS), a nationally representative project designed to track the long-term evolution, demographics, and cultural trajectory of American religious traditions—with a specific, granular focus on members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, frequently referred to as Mormons.

The release arrives at a pivotal moment in American religious history. Recent findings from the same research initiative indicate that while the broader decline of Christianity in the United States has slowed and potentially leveled off, specific faith groups continue to undergo distinct internal shifts. By isolating distinct demographics within the Latter-day Saint community, researchers aim to provide sociologists, historians, and the public with a reliable baseline for understanding how this unique American-born religious tradition is weathering modern social and political changes.

Main Facts: Scope, Demographics, and Sample Sizing

At the core of the newly published documentation is the technical architecture behind the RLS. Conducted between July 17, 2023, and March 4, 2024, the study gathered responses from a nationally representative sample of 36,908 U.S. adults. Administered in both English and Spanish, the survey utilized a mixed-method approach—predominantly self-administered online or via paper questionnaires—overseen by NORC at the University of Chicago.

Within this massive national sample, researchers captured data from 565 unweighted respondents who identified as Latter-day Saints (Mormons). Because subgroups require careful statistical balancing, the Pew Research Center has published detailed unweighted sample sizes and margins of sampling error (calculated conservatively at the 95% confidence level assuming a reported percentage of 50%) to ensure analytical transparency:

• Overall Latter-day Saints: 565 respondents, with a margin of error of ±6.2 percentage points.
• Gender Breakdown:
  • Men: 253 respondents (±9.7 percentage points)
  • Women: 308 respondents (±7.5 percentage points)
• Age Brackets:
  • Ages 18–49: 247 respondents (±8.9 percentage points)
  • Ages 50 and older: 311 respondents (±8.1 percentage points)
• Educational Attainment:
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 303 respondents (±7.4 percentage points)
  • Less education: 262 respondents (±8.7 percentage points)
• Geographic Distribution:
  • Mountain region: 332 respondents (±8.1 percentage points)
  • Other U.S. regions: 233 respondents (±9.4 percentage points)
• Religious Heritage:
  • Lifelong Latter-day Saints: 414 respondents (±7.0 percentage points)
  • Latter-day Saint converts: 151 respondents (±12.7 percentage points)
• Political Ideology:
  • Republicans or those leaning Republican: 412 respondents (±7.1 percentage points)
• Former Members:
  • Disaffiliated / Former Latter-day Saints: 316 respondents (±8.1 percentage points)

These precise statistical breakdowns allow researchers to evaluate ideological and demographic variances within the Mormon population—such as the experiences of converts versus lifelong members, or generational shifts between younger and older cohorts—while remaining fully transparent about the statistical limits of smaller sample sizes.

Chronology: Tracing Decades of Religious Data Collection

To understand the trajectory of Latter-day Saints in America, the Pew Research Center’s recent findings do not exist in a vacuum. They are part of a multi-decade longitudinal effort to map religious identity in the U.S.

2007: The Baseline Landscape Study

The Pew Research Center launched its inaugural landmark U.S. Religious Landscape Survey in 2007. Conducted primarily via traditional telephone interviews, this foundational project established a baseline for religious affiliation across the country. It asked respondents a direct question about their present religious identity, incorporating "Mormon" as a distinct category alongside major Christian denominations, world religions, and secular identities. Follow-up questions were utilized to ensure that those selecting "Mormon" were indeed affiliated with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints rather than splinter groups or historical restoration movements.

2011: The Major Survey of Latter-day Saints

Recognizing the unique cultural and theological footprint of the faith, Pew conducted a standalone, comprehensive survey dedicated specifically to Mormons in America in 2011. This deep-dive study explored beliefs, cultural practices, social values, and political alignments within the faith. Like the 2007 study, it relied on telephone methodologies and included verification steps to confirm church affiliation, revealing that at least 98% of those identifying broadly as "Mormon" specifically belonged to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

2014: Re-evaluating the Landscape

The second major iteration of the U.S. Religious Landscape Study was executed in 2014. Continuing the telephone-interview model, it updated national figures and allowed researchers to track generational retention, conversion rates, and demographic shifts over a seven-year span. It maintained the same back-coding protocols for respondents who wrote in related historical groups (such as the Community of Christ or fundamentalist groups) under the "something else" category, ensuring historical continuity in data categorization.

2023–24: Modernizing the Survey Architecture

The most recent data collection cycle marked a fundamental shift in survey methodology. Moving away from traditional telephone polling—which has faced declining response rates across the polling industry—the 2023–24 RLS utilized a self-administered online and paper-based model. Furthermore, the primary identity question was updated to explicitly include the church’s full formal "Mormon (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints or LDS)."

Despite these shifts in format and wording, the continuity of the core questioning has allowed researchers—authored in the latest 2026 report by Jonathan Evans and Rebecca Leppert—to map nearly twenty years of religious transformation in the United States.

Supporting Data: Methodological Evolution and Classification Nuances

A critical component of sociological research is understanding how categories are defined. In their newly released documentation, Evans and Leppert outline the precise technical parameters used to classify individuals as Latter-day Saints across the 2007, 2011, 2014, and 2023–24 survey cycles.

The Wording Evolution

In the 2007, 2011, and 2014 telephone surveys, interviewers read a standardized list of religious traditions: "What is your present religion, if any? Are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Mormon, Orthodox such as Greek or Russian Orthodox, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist, agnostic, something else, or nothing in particular?"

In the 2023–24 digital and paper questionnaires, respondents read the updated phrasing: "Mormon (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints or LDS)." This linguistic modernization reflects the institutional preference of church leadership for the full formal name while maintaining immediate recognition through the familiar colloquial term.

Handling Splinter Groups and Historical Affiliations

A subtle yet important methodological detail involves how researchers handle respondents who claim affiliations with smaller restorationist branches originating from the early Latter Day Saint movement founded by Joseph Smith.

• In 2007 and 2014: Respondents who selected "something else" and manually wrote in or volunteered identities such as "Community of Christ" (formerly the Reorganized Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints) or "fundamentalist Latter-day Saint" were systematically back-coded into the broader "Mormon" analytical category.
• In 2023–24: While respondents could still write in alternative religious identities under the "something else" category, the RLS did not back-code these groups into the primary "Latter-day Saint" category.

However, data validation shows this change had a negligible impact on overall comparative analysis. Out of 36,908 total respondents in the 2023–24 study, only six individuals volunteered an affiliation with a Mormon-tradition group outside the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Consequently, longitudinal comparisons remain robust and statistically sound.

Official Responses and Academic Context

The release of these detailed methodology notes underscores the Pew Research Center’s ongoing commitment to transparency in the face of increasingly complex religious landscapes. Independent sociologists of religion have praised the detailed accounting of sample sizes and margins of error, particularly given the challenges of polling religious minorities that make up a small percentage of the total U.S. population.

While church officials in Salt Lake City do not formally direct or endorse secular polling organizations, representatives from academic institutions that study religious demographics have noted that independent datasets like the RLS provide vital external benchmarks. Where internal church membership reports focus heavily on baptismal records and congregational counts, Pew’s landscape studies measure self-identification, cultural retention, and ideological shifts among individuals who may or may not maintain active institutional participation.

Furthermore, the documentation highlights the distinct profile of American Latter-day Saints: heavily concentrated in the Mountain West (accounting for 332 respondents in the regional sample), maintaining high levels of political alignment with the Republican Party (412 respondents), and possessing a unique internal dynamic between lifelong members (414) and converts (151).

Implications: What the Data Tells Us About the Future of American Religion

The publication of "Tradition and Change Among Latter-day Saints in the U.S." by researchers Jonathan Evans and Rebecca Leppert offers far-reaching implications for the study of American religion:

1. Methodological Resilience in Digital Polling: By successfully transitioning from telephone-based interviews to self-administered online and paper formats without losing longitudinal continuity, Pew has established a modern template for tracking religious minorities. The transparency regarding sample sizes (such as the 12.7% margin of error for converts due to an unweighted sample of 151) ensures that researchers interpret data with appropriate scientific caution.
2. The Persistence of Traditional Faith in a Secularizing Age: While broad national trends over the last two decades have documented a rise in the religiously unaffiliated ("nones"), structured religious traditions like the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints maintain distinct cultural and demographic strongholds. Understanding the retention rates between lifelong members and converts provides a lens into how high-demand religions sustain themselves in pluralistic societies.
3. Regional and Political Homogeneity: The data continues to highlight the profound intersection of geography, politics, and faith within the Latter-day Saint community. With high concentrations in the Mountain region and a strong tilt toward conservative political alignment, the community serves as a case study in how tight-knit religious subcultures interact with broader American political polarization.

As researchers continue to unpack the full scope of the 2023–24 Religious Landscape Study, this methodological foundation ensures that future discussions regarding America’s religious mosaic remain grounded in rigorous, verifiable, and transparent empirical data.

Citation:
Evans, Jonathan and Rebecca Leppert. 2026. “Tradition and Change Among Latter-day Saints in the U.S.” Pew Research Center. DOI: 10.58094/a124-c097.